Makro

ING’s Chris Turner says rising short-dated Eurozone yields on higher Oil and pass-through of input costs are not clearly supportive for EUR/USD. He argues the European Central Bank must get ahead of inflation expectations and that current real rate differentials are unsupportive.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose expects the Russian central bank to deliver another 50bp rate cut, though a pause is possible as inflation picks up and global price risks worsen.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, holds onto gains near the weekly high around 99.00 in the Asian trade on Friday.

EUR/JPY inches higher after three days of gains, trading around 186.60 during Asian hours on Friday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the currency cross is positioned slightly below the ascending channel, signaling potential for a bearish reversal.

The AUD/USD pair loses traction to near 0.7130 during the early Asian session on Friday. Renewed conflict in the Middle East provides some support for a safe-haven currency, such as the US Dollar (USD), against the Australian Dollar (AUD).

UOB economists Julia Goh and Loke Siew Ting highlight that the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has started a new tightening cycle, lifting the Target Reverse Repurchase (RRP) rate to 4.50% and signalling further hikes.

Standard Chartered’s Dan Pan expects Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) to continue its cautious easing cycle, projecting a 25bps cut at the 29 April meeting as inflation risks remain elevated.

Nomura analysts expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to keep the depo rate at 2.00% at the 30 April meeting and to maintain this level through Q4 2027.

BNY’s Geoff Yu argues that recent European inflation data do not yet justify pre-emptive tightening by the European Central Bank (ECB) or Bank of England (BoE).