Makro

Commerzbank's Dr. Jörg Krämer and Bernd Weidensteiner expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to leave rates unchanged next week but still project a June hike if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked and inflation risks persist.

National Bank of Canada (NBC) analysts Ethan Currie and Taylor Schleich expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to keep its overnight target at 2.25%, extending a fourth consecutive hold.

The latest Reuters surveys highlight a gradual shift toward tighter monetary policy expectations in the Eurozone, with a more pronounced tightening bias than previously anticipated.

Societe Generale analysts highlight that stronger‑than‑forecast United Kingdom (UK) inflation and PMIs (Purchasing Managers' Index) raise the question of a potential hawkish dissent at next week’s Bank of England (BoE) meeting, even though the house view is for a unanimous hold.

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict The U.S. naval blockade is clearly hurting Iran, but it has not forced Tehran to bend. Iranian oil exports have fallen sharply, vessel traffic is down, ships have been turned back or seized, and the pressure on Iran’s economy is real. But the blockade is not airtight

Rabobank’s Senior Macro Strategist Bas van Geffen argues that muted market reactions have reduced urgency for central banks to act, even as Middle East conflict risks persist.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights that EUR/USD is hovering near its 200-day moving average as Eurozone data signal stalling growth and rising inflation pressures.

NZD/USD trades higher around 0.5865 on Friday, gaining 0.22% at the time of writing, while the US Dollar (USD) loses ground with the US Dollar Index (DXY) down 0.18% at 98.65.

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and Governor of the National Bank of Slovakia (NBS) Peter Kazimir highlights the need for a slight interest rate increase during European trading hours on Friday. Kazimir warned that the Iran war could still significantly slow global growth.

EUR/JPY trades around 186.70 on Friday, posting a modest 0.06% gain as investors remain cautious ahead of a week marked by monetary policy decisions from several major central banks. The pair is supported by a broadly resilient Euro (EUR), while facing mixed flows on the Japanese Yen (JPY).

The US Dollar (USD) maintains a near-term bullish trend against the Swiss Franc (CHF), but the pair eased from 10-day highs of 0.7875 on Friday to levels close to 0.7860, as the President of the Swiss National Bank (SNB), Martin Schlegel, hinted at changes in the bank’s monetary policy.

Deutsche Bank analysts note that strong United States (US) Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data have reinforced perceptions of economic resilience and rising price pressures, leading markets to scale back expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts.

ING’s Chris Turner notes that Gulf tensions and broadening inflation pressures are keeping investors wary of short US Dollar (USD) positions. He highlights firm short-dated US yields as markets price a stagflationary oil shock and a potentially more hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed).

Nordea’s Chief Analyst Jan von Gerich expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to leave policy rates unchanged at the April meeting while keeping all options open for June. He anticipates a hawkish communication tone that underpins market expectations for a June hike.

The EUR/USD pair trades in a tight range around 1.1700 during the European trading session on Friday. The major currency pair consolidates while the US Dollar (USD) trades broadly firm, with investors shifting focus to central banks’ policy meetings next week.