Makro

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading cautiously near the 98.50 level as markets prepare for a busy week of central bank meetings.

Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley notes that earlier market surveys showed a strong chance of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike this week, but Governor Ueda’s lack of clear hints at IMF/World Bank meetings shifted expectations to June.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) futures trade around 0.4% lower on Monday, slipping to near 49,100 after dipping briefly below 49,050 earlier in the session.

MUFG’s FX team highlights that Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate-hike expectations for April have collapsed, even as Japanese inflation data surprise to the upside.

Standard Chartered strategists Christopher Graham and John Davies expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to keep the deposit rate at 2.00% on 30 April, citing a wait‑for‑data stance as the Middle East conflict evolves.

MUFG analysts note that EUR/GBP has drifted lower within a 0.8600–0.8800 range as the Pound (GBP) outperforms the Euro (EUR). The euro-zone faces weaker PMIs and rising stagflation risks, while stronger United Kingdom (UK) data and sticky inflation have markets pricing more BoE tightening.

Rabobank strategists reiterate its view that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to cut rates again this year, even as United States (US) Treasury yields edge higher on persistent inflation concerns.

Commerzbank’s Rainer Guntermann argues that the ECB is likely to maintain a balanced hold this week, with April HICP data expected to show energy-driven headline inflation and a temporary dip in core.

GBP/USD trades around 1.3565 on Monday, up 0.23% on the day, supported by a weaker US Dollar in a context of improving risk appetite.

ING’s Chris Turner highlights unusually low USD/JPY volatility despite multiple global risks and key central bank meetings. Their economists warn markets underprice the risk of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike and possible upward revisions to inflation forecasts.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, holds its losses suffered after giving back opening gains around 98.30 during the European trading session on Monday, ahead of the United States (US) markets opening.