Makro

TD Securities economists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to stay on hold until September as it assesses the Iran conflict’s impact and monitors inflation.

Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen writes that suspected MoF/BoJ intervention has strengthened the Japanese Yen (JPY), but questions how long gains will last. Markets still doubt the Bank of Japan's (BoJ willingness to respond forcefully to inflation, and see the JPY as a G10 laggard.

BNP Paribas economists expect United Kingdom (UK) growth to slow to 0.7% in 2026 from 1.4% in 2025, with quarterly expansion dropping to about 0.1%.

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur highlights strong market conviction that the RBA will deliver a third consecutive rate hike, with futures implying a 75% probability. Inflation and expectations remain well above target and RBA rhetoric has turned more hawkish.

BNY’s Bob Savage points out that the Euro is holding above 1.1700 even as the US Dollar (USD) firms, with markets weighing divergent European Central Bank (ECB) rhetoric. François Villeroy de Galhau argues for waiting for more data, while Peter Kažimír signals near-certainty of a June rate hike.

BNY’s Bob Savage highlights that the European Central Bank (ECB) is now clearly leaning toward a June rate move, contrasting with the Bank of England's (BoE) preference to wait for fuller confirmation. He sees this directional guidance as a break from the prior “policy in a good place” stance.

In his annual letter to French President Emmanuel Macron on the state of the economy on Monday, European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau argued that the ECB needs gather a "critical mass of data" suggesting that inflation is becoming entrenched before tightening the policy

Societe Generale economists report that the Bank of England's (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left Bank Rate at 3.75% with an 8–1 vote. Their base case is for rates to remain unchanged through 2026, though further hikes of 50–75 bps are possible if the US‑Iran conflict persists.

UOB strategists expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to keep policy broadly steady but deliver a single 25-basis-point rate hike at the 11 Jun meeting.