Makro Haberleri

Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen argues that in the short term EUR/USD gains are capped as markets may be overestimating the European Central Bank's (ECB) reaction to the latest inflation shock.

The AUD/JPY cross loses ground near 113.65 during the early European session on Monday. Renewed tensions between the United States (US) and Iran provide some support to a safe-haven currency such as the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the Aussie.

EUR/JPY gains ground after registering nearly 0.5% losses the previous trading day, hovering around 186.80 during Asian hours on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the currency cross is trending higher within an ascending channel, signaling a persistent bullish bias.

Asian equities rise on Monday despite renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz, which pushed oil prices sharply higher, amplifying inflation concerns and increasing the chances of further central bank rate hikes.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, currently trades near 98.30 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The DXY trades with mild gains on renewed US-Iran tensions.

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lloyd Chan notes that improved diplomatic signals in the Middle East have boosted risk sentiment, softening the US Dollar (USD) and supporting Asian FX. However, high US front-end yields still underpin the Dollar, and bond markets remain cautious.

Christopher Waller, a member of the Federal Reserve (Fed), speaks about the economic outlook and monetary policy at Auburn University in Alabama on Friday. He stated that the break-even rate for the job market is currently likely around zero.

Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of San Francisco, spoke at the University of California-Berkeley's Fisher Center on Friday. She indicated that, at this point, she is observing whether higher oil prices are affecting the prices of other goods and services.

Volkmar Baur at Commerzbank flags surging trade and current account surpluses in China, Taiwan and South Korea alongside weak currencies versus Euro (EUR) and, for the Won (KRW), even versus US Dollar (USD).