Makro Haberleri

Inflation in the United States (US), as measured by the change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, climbed to 3.5% in March from 2.8% in February, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Thursday. This print came in line with the market expectation.

Deutsche Bank strategists report that the Federal Reserve (Fed) left rates unchanged but saw four dissents, the most since 1992, including both dovish and hawkish objections.

The Euro (EUR) shows marginal losses against the British Pound (GBP) on Thursday but remains trading within the last few days’ range around 0.8660, lacking any clear bias.

TD Securities strategists expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to leave the deposit rate at 2.00%, reiterating a meeting-by-meeting approach without pre-committing on future moves. However, recent inflation expectations data raise the risk of a more hawkish press conference.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) faces selling pressure, prima facie, after the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy announcement. As expected, the BoE has left interest rates unchanged at 3.75%, with an 8-1 majority. This is the third straight meeting that the BoE has maintained the status quo.

USD/CAD trades around 1.3655 on Thursday, down 0.21% on the day, after stabilizing in the previous day. The pair faces short-term pressure due to a modest pullback in the US Dollar, although downside momentum may remain limited in an uncertain macro environment.

Deutsche Bank economists expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to keep the deposit rate at 2% while markets fully price a June hike due to Europe’s energy exposure.

MUFG’s Lee Hardman highlights that EUR/USD has slipped back below 1.1700 as the Euro corrects lower into the ECB meeting.

Societe Generale strategists expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to keep rates unchanged today despite a hawkish bias after past late tightening. It warns that unresolved Gulf tensions in six weeks could make a future rate hike more contentious as growth risks rise.

Francesco Pesole at ING argues that Bank of England (BoE) tightening expectations, now close to European Central Bank (ECB) pricing, look excessive given the higher starting rate and less hawkish BoE stance.