IEA Revises 2026 Forecast: Oil Deficit Widens as Iran War Cuts Production

Global oil demand is set to exceed supply in the current year amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, reversing previous projections of a surplus. According to the May 2026 Oil Market Report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil supply is projected to fall by 3.9 million bpd across 2026, with ~10.5 million bpd of Gulf oil production currently offline. Global demand is forecast to contract by 420,000 bpd due to surging prices, slow economic growth and widespread flight cancellations, with oil demand still set to outpace supply…