Makro

Nordea’s Ole Håkon Eek-Nielsen and Jan von Gerich now expect the ECB to deliver four consecutive 25 bp rate hikes starting in June, despite recent ceasefire news in the Middle East.

Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), gave a statement at the fifty-third meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMF) on Friday.

ING keeps a mildly bearish profile for USD/CAD into year‑end, driven mainly by expected Dollar weakness once the Federal Reserve resumes cutting in 3Q. Canada’s domestic backdrop is less supportive, with the Bank of Canada worried about upcoming USMCA talks and jobs.

Nordea analysts Ole Håkon Eek-Nielsen and Jan von Gerich argue that higher energy and commodity prices, together with tight labour markets and solid demand, make Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts unlikely.

DBS Group Research’s Philip Wee notes that EUR/USD’s recent advance stalled after repeated failures to break 1.18, as the European Central Bank (ECB) pushes back against expectations for an April rate hike.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) outperforms its major currency peers, trading 0.16% higher to near 0.7175 ahead of the opening of United States (US) markets during the European trading session on Friday.

Commerzbank analysts note that recent dovish comments from key European Central Bank (ECB) officials have left forwards pricing only modest near-term moves but still more than two hikes for 2026.

EUR/GBP trades around 0.8715 on Friday at the time of writing, up 0.06% on the day, as the Euro (EUR) finds moderate support from stronger inflation data in the Eurozone while the Pound Sterling (GBP) remains constrained by cautious signals from the Bank of England (BoE).

Rabobank strategist Molly Schwartz highlights that the US Dollar (USD) was the third best-performing G10 currency, but the Canadian Dollar (CAD) outpaced it, pushing USD/CAD down to 1.37, reflecting relative CAD strength on the day.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades lower against its major currency peers during the European trading session on Friday.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is extending gains for the second successive day and trading around 98.30 during the European hours on Friday.

The USD/CAD pair extends its downside to around 1.3685 during the early European trading hours on Friday. Reports of a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon reduce safe-haven demand for the US Dollar (USD).

Avustralya Doları'nın güçlenmesi, emtia fiyatlarının artışı ve sağlıklı ekonomik görünümle destekleniyor. AUD/USD paritesinin 0.7200 seviyesinin üzerinde yeni bir yükseliş göstermesi bekleniyor, ancak ABD Doları'nın durumu ve jeopolitik riskler parite üzerinde baskı oluşturabilir.

EUR/JPY paritesi, Avrupa Merkez Bankası'nın sıkılaşma sinyalleri ve Japonya'nın düşük faiz politikaları sayesinde tüm zamanların en yüksek seviyesi olan 187.83'e ulaştı. Bu durum, Euro'ya olan talebi artırırken, zayıf Yen'in Japonya'nın ihracatçıları için avantaj sağladığı ancak ithalat maliyetlerini yükselttiği bir ortam yaratıyor.

EUR/USD paritesinin 1.1825 seviyesini aşması, yeni alım fırsatları yaratabilirken, mevcut belirsizlikler yatırımcıların temkinli kalmasına neden oluyor. ABD ve İran müzakereleri, döviz ve enerji piyasalarında dalgalanmalara yol açabilir.

ABD Dolar Endeksi'nin 98.25 seviyelerinde kalması, Orta Doğu'daki jeopolitik belirsizliklerin etkisiyle piyasalarda durağanlık yaratıyor. Doların güçlü durumu, değerli metallerin fiyatlarını baskılayabilirken, enerji fiyatları ve belirli sektörlerin karlılıkları üzerinde de dolaylı etkiler oluşturabilir.