Makro

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose reviews the Turkish Lira (TRY) outlook ahead of the Turkish central bank’s (CBT’s) key rate decision. He notes inflation expectations for 2026 have risen and that officials appeared hesitant to signal hikes despite depleted reserves.

ING’s Chris Turner highlights a busy week of European Central Bank speakers before the blackout period, with officials signalling readiness to hike if needed but preferring more time. Markets have removed a 30 April move and see roughly 50% odds of a June hike, which ING expects.

MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes that the US Dollar (USD) has rebounded at the start of the week, lifting the Dollar Index (DXY) back towards its 200-day moving average near 98.500 after Friday’s low around 97.63.

Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley highlights that the Japanese Yen (JPY) remains the weakest G10 currency, with USD/JPY trading just below 160 on fears of Japanese Ministry of Finance (MoF) intervention.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) underperforms its major currency peers during the late European trading session on Monday, trading 0.15% lower against the US Dollar (USD) at around 0.7155.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) exhibits a mixed performance against its major currency peers during the European trading session on Monday. The British currency is expected to remain volatile as a slew of United Kingdom (UK) economic data is scheduled to be published this week.

The GBP/USD pair builds on its modest intraday recovery from a one-week low and climbs back above the 1.3500 psychological mark during the early European session on Monday.

The GBP/JPY pair trades higher to near 214.60 during the European trading session on Monday. The pair gains as the Japanese Yen (JPY) underperforms its peers amid uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) interest rate decision, which will be announced on April 28.

ING’s Chris Turner notes the US Dollar (USD) briefly weakened after news that the Strait of Hormuz was fully open, implying US Dollar Index (DXY) around 97.50/98.00 and EUR/USD just over 1.18 if the crisis were resolved.